HIỆP ĐỊNH THƯƠNG MẠI TỰ DO VIỆT NAM – UAE VÀ TÁC ĐỘNG TIỀM ẨN ĐẾN XUẤT KHẨU CÀ PHÊ, CHÈ VÀ GIA VỊ CỦA VIỆT NAM: NGHIÊN CỨU THỰC NGHIỆM BẰNG PHƯƠNG PHÁP EX-ANTE VÀ MÔ HÌNH SMART

Abstract

The paper aims at examining the ex-ant impact of the Vietnam – UAE FTA, which is still under negotiation, on Vietnam’s coffee, tea, maté and spice exports on the usage of the SMART model. Two scenarios are developed in accordance with the UAE’s trade liberalization as follows: (i) the Vietnam-UAE FTA would come into force, specifying UAE's commitments on exclusive tariff elimination for Vietnam's coffee, tea, maté and spices and (ii) UAE would provide tariff removal to coffee, tea, maté and spice imports from not only Vietnam but alsso 11 other partners thanks to different CEPAs and FTAs. The SMART model findings reveal that the Vietnam – UAE FTA would have an enhancing effect on Vietnam’s exports, even though they would face fierce competition from other partners' products, enjoying UAE's tax incentives as well. This leads to some short-term and long-term recommendations of the author to promote Vietnam’s exports of coffee, tea, maté and spices both to the UAE and worldwide.