DỰ BÁO XUẤT KHẨU GẠO CỦA VIỆT NAM ĐẾN NĂM 2030

Abstract

This article forecasts Vietnam’s rice export volume, value, and price up to 2030 using ARIMA model. The study utilizes time series data from year 1989 to 2024, compiled from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) and the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO). The forecast results indicate that Vietnam's rice export volume is projected to continue increasing, reaching 10.18 million tons, and the export value is expected to reach 7.33 billion USD by 2030. However, the average export rice price is predicted to slightly decrease to around 605.35 USD/ton until 2030. Research suggests that in the coming decade, Vietnam's rice production and export strategy should focus on improving product quality and export rice prices. Specifically, the government needs to implement policies that promote the adoption of high-quality rice varieties and expand organic rice cultivation areas for export, particularly in the Mekong Delta region–the country’s primary rice basket for export.