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Abstract
This study examines the short- and long-run effects of industrialization and urbanization on economic growth in 11 provinces of Central Vietnam during 2009–2024. Grounded in endogenous growth theory and a dynamic panel framework, the study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model under the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation approach to capture short-run heterogeneity and long-run convergence among provinces. The findings reveal that: (1) industrialization exerts a consistently positive and significant impact in both the short and long run; (2) urbanization contributes only in the short run, with limited evidence of long-term spillover effects; (3) institutional quality (PCI) and price stability (CPI) are critical for sustaining long-term growth; and (4) forest coverage exhibits a trade-off between economic development and ecological preservation. This study contributes novel panel-based evidence on the dynamic relationship between industrialization, urbanization, and provincial growth in Vietnam, and provides policy implications emphasizing industrial upgrading, institutional reform, sustainable urban planning, and eco-economic mechanisms to foster inclusive and sustainable regional development in Central Vietnam.
Keywords: Industrialization; Urbanization; Economic growth; ARDL; PMG.