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Abstract
This study uses the Binary Logistic regression model to measure the probability of overdue debt of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) at Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade - Thua Thien Hue Branch. The research focuses on clarifying the factors affecting the repayment ability of customers through the factors that come from the characteristics of the loan itself and the characteristics of the SME. The results have identified 04 factors that have a positive impact and 04 factors that have a negative impact on the probability of overdue debt of SMEs. This result mayhelp VietinBank - Thua Thien Hue Branch to be applied to the screening of SME customers before lending to limit the risk of overdue debt. Base on this, we proposed some solutions on each factor for VietinBank - Thua Thien Hue Branch to apply in credit rating and appraisal before lending to SMEs customers.