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Abstract
This article predicts Vietnam's planted paddy area, productivity, and production by cropping season until the year 2030 using the ARIMA model. This study utilized time series data for the period 1990–2021. The forecasted results show that by 2030, the cultivated paddy area of the spring and winter seasons is predicted to decrease from 3.01 and 1.56 million hectares to 2.75 and 1.21 million hectares, respectively. Meanwhile, the planted paddy area of the autumn season is projected to increase from 2.67 million hectares to 3.09 million hectares. Paddy productivity in all cropping seasons is projected to increase, specifically, the spring season increases from 6.86 tons/ha to 7.74 tons/ha, the autumn season increases from 5.67 tons/ha to 6.32 tons /ha, and the winter season increases from 5.17 tons/ha to 5.89 tons/ha. Paddy production is forecasted to increase, specifically, the spring and autumn seasons sharply increase, from 20.63 and 15.16 million tons to 24.33 and 18.37 million tons, respectively. Meanwhile, the production of the winter season is forecasted to slightly increase, to 8.13 million tons. The study suggests that policies should focus on maintaining the cultivated area of the spring and winter seasons.